Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • Italy
  • United Kingdom
  • France
  • Netherlands
  • Sweden
  • Ireland
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Iceland
  • Austria
  • Switzerland
  • Malta

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,267$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,840.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(51,840.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,924$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(507 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,023.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,023.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,965$ on 2020-05-04

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $218,011$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.78 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{214,392.0}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(214,392.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25,428$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,546.4}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(24,546.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $71,240$ on 2020-05-04

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $211,938$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{208,482.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(208,482.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,079$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,715.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,715.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $99,980$ on 2020-05-04

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $191,832$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(8.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{203,464.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(203,464.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,809$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,904.6}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,904.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $162,113$ on 2020-05-04

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $169,583$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176,772.2}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(176,772.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25,204$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,978.6}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(24,978.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $92,903$ on 2020-05-04

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $40,968$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,202.9}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(42,202.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,098$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(424 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,169.3}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,169.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,732$ on 2020-05-04

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $22,721$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,116.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27,116.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,769$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(146 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,059.0}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,059.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,878$ on 2020-05-04

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,772$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,133.0}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(23,133.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,319$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(37.4 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,591.1}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,591.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,067$ on 2020-05-04

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 94%
Austria recovered 82%
Switzerland recovered 79%
Malta recovered 78%
Germany recovered 64%
Croatia recovered 60%
Andorra recovered 59%
North Macedonia recovered 55%
Denmark recovered 46%
Czechia recovered 30%
Spain recovered 30%
Slovakia recovered 27%
Italy recovered 8%
Romania recovered 4%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,799$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(346 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.0}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.5}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 23.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $66$ on 2020-05-04

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,621$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,058.9}{1 + 10^{-0.084 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(15,058.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $600$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(65.2 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{606.2}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 30.1)}}\) (asimptote \(606.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,705$ on 2020-05-04

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,981$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(4.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,128.3}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 30.3)}}\) (asimptote \(29,128.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,784$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(155 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,784.5}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,784.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,997$ on 2020-05-04

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $480$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(77 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{482.0}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 28.9)}}\) (asimptote \(482.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4$ on 2020-05-04

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $77$ on 2020-05-04